Thursday, July 4, 2013

Technical Snapshot

Gold rises as dollar falls on Egypt unrest, U.S. data
Gold prices rose on Wednesday after mixed U.S. data made timing the end of Federal Reserve stimulus measures more difficult, which gave gold room to rise as the dollar slid.

Stimulus measures such as the Fed's monthly USD85 billion bond-buying program weaken the dollar and send gold rising as a hedge, and while the market widely expects the U.S. central bank to scale back such measures later this year, speculation of possible delays bolstered the yellow metal.

Payroll processor ADP reported earlier that the U.S. private sector added 188,000 jobs in June, beating expectations for an increase of 160,000.

Separately, the U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial unemployment assistance last week fell by 5,000 to 343,000, slightly better than expectations for a drop of 3,000 to 345,000.

Separate data showed that service-sector activity in the U.S. grew at a slower rate than expected in June.

The Institute of Supply Management said its non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to 52.2 in June from 53.7 in May, compared to expectations for an increase to 54.0.

Collectively, the data pointed to a picture of an economy on the mend though doubts as to whether the Federal Reserve feels it merits an end to stimulus programs gave gold room to rise. 


Crude extends gains on Egypt unrest, U.S. data support
Crude prices rose on Wednesday as a political crisis in Egypt continued to fan fears that the ongoing instability could disrupt supply.

Better-than-expected private-sector jobs data bolstered prices as well.

Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi earlier rebuffed the military’s ultimatum to comprise with protesters or relinquish power, which stoked fears that tensions would lead to the closure of the Suez Canal, which transports approximately 2 million barrels of crude oil a day from northern Africa to the U.S.

Elsewhere, payroll processor ADP reported earlier that the U.S. private sector added 188,000 jobs in June, beating expectations for an increase of 160,000, which bolstered prices just two days ahead of the release of official monthly jobs data.

Separately, the U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial unemployment assistance last week fell by 5,000 to 343,000, slightly better than expectations for a drop of 3,000 to 345,000.

Separate data showed that service-sector activity in the U.S. grew at a slower rate than expected in June.

The Institute of Supply Management said its non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to 52.2 in June from 53.7 in May, compared to expectations for an increase to 54.0, though investors shrugged off the data.


Natural gas moves up on supply data, weather forecasts weigh
Natural gas prices edged higher Wednesday after official data revealed inventories rose less than expected last week, as calls for milder summer temperatures across portions of the eastern U.S. dampened gains.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended June 28 rose by 72 billion cubic feet, below expectations for an increase of 75 billion.

Inventories rose by 95 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2.605 trillion cubic feet as of last week.

The report showed that in the East Region, stocks were 92 billion cubic feet below the five-year average, following net injections of 48 billion cubic feet.

Stocks in the Producing Region were 19 billion cubic feet above the five-year average of 952 billion cubic feet after a net injection of 14 billion cubic feet.

Prices, however, remained subdued after weather services adjusted their forecasts and called for milder temperatures in the coming days across portions of the eastern U.S.

Mild summer temperatures cut into the need for gas-fired electricity to cool homes and dampen demand for natural gas.
Economic Events for the Day
Time
Cur.
Event
Forecast
Previous
                                                Thursday, July 4
All Day
 
United States - Independence Day
12:30
  GBP
Halifax House Price Index (MoM)
0.40%
0.40%
12:30
  GBP
Halifax House Price Index (YoY)
3.60%
2.60%
14:30
  EUR
GDP (QoQ)
-0.20%
-0.20%
16:30
  GBP
BoE QE Total
375B
375B
16:30
  GBP
Interest Rate Decision
0.50%
0.50%
17:15
  EUR
Interest Rate Decision
0.50%
0.50%
18:00
  EUR
ECB President Draghi Speaks   
 
 

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