Friday, January 18, 2013


Gold drops modestly in Asia following strong U.S. session

Gold futures slipped a bit in the early part of Friday’s Asian session, indicating traders may be looking to book some profits after the yellow metal turned in a solid performance in Thursday’s U.S. session.

Mostly ignoring a report that showed the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index slipped to -5.8 in January from 4.6 last month. Economists expected a January reading of 5, traders punished safer assets such as the U.S. dollar during Thursday’s on the back of two other positive economic data points that helped send U.S. equities to their best levels in about five years.

In other U.S. economic news, initial claims for jobless benefits fell by 37,000 last week to 335,000. That is the lowest reading since early 2008 and well below the consensus estimate of 370,000 claims.

The Commerce Department said new housing starts surged 12.1% last month to a seasonally adjusted rate of 954,000 units. The November estimate was revised down to 851,000 from 861,000. The December reading was the best since June 2008.

Meanwhile, gold may also be peeling back today on the back of a Goldman Sachs report out Thursday that was also somewhat ignored due the ebullience surrounding U.S. equities. The venerable bank lowered its 3-, 6- and 12-month forecasts gold to USD1,825, USD1,805 and USD1,800 per ounce, respectively. Goldman’s price forecast for 2014 is an average of USD1,750 an ounce.

Oil succumbs to profit-taking ahead of Chinese data

Oil futures traded slightly lower in the early going of Friday’s Asian, backing off the four-month highs set during Thursday’s U.S. session as traders await a batch of critical economic data out of China later today.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for February delivery fell 0.25% to USD95.70 per barrel in Asian trading Friday. Crude futures surged 1.67% to settle at USD96.26 a barrel during Thursday’s U.S. session.

That performance was stoked by two impressive data point and U.S. equities jumping to their best levels seen since 2007. In U.S. economic initial claims for jobless benefits fell by 37,000 last week to 335,000. That is the lowest reading since early 2008 and well below the consensus estimate of 370,000 claims.

The Commerce Department said new housing starts surged 12.1% last month to a seasonally adjusted rate of 954,000 units. The November estimate was revised down to 851,000 from 861,000. The December reading was the best since June 2008.

The U.S. is the world’s largest oil consumer and positive employment and housing data reports often spark oil prices higher.

Now, traders will turn their attention to China. Later today, the world’s second-largest oil-consuming nation will deliver its fourth-quarter and full-year 2012 GDP reports along with December industrial output, retail sales and home price data.

Elsewhere, traders mulled oil’s next move after Algerian forces moved to free hostages at an energy facility. Following a clash with militant rebels, casualties were reported. The North African nation is a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Algeria, an OPEC member since 1969, produces about 1.1 million barrels per day.

Natural gas prices surge as U.S. inventories make surprising declines

Natural gas futures rose on Thursday, hovering near five-week highs after U.S. government data revealed inventories fell more than expected last week.

Forecasts for cooler weather pushed up prices as well.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report earlier that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended Jan. 11 fell by 148 billion cubic feet compared to market expectations for a decline of 136 billion cubic feet, which took many market participants by surprise.

Inventories fell by 89 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a decline of 144 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.168 trillion cubic feet as of last week. Stocks were 147 billion cubic feet less than last year at this time and 316 billion cubic feet above the five-year average of 2.852 trillion cubic feet for this time of year.

The report showed that in the East Region, stocks were 92 billion cubic feet above the five-year average, following net withdrawals of 86 billion cubic feet.

Stocks in the Producing Region were 156 billion cubic feet above the five-year average of 957 billion cubic feet, after a net withdrawal of 39billion cubic feet.

Meanwhile, multiple weather services were forecasting for cooler temperature to return for a good portion of the lower 48 U.S. states, especially across much of the heavily populated eastern reaches of the country.

Natural gas futures are very sensitive to weather reports in the U.S. winter.

The U.S. heating season running from November through March sees peak demand for gas.

About half of U.S. households use gas for heating purposes, according to Energy Department data.

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